Fantasy Draft Stock Over/Under

Draft stock over/under is back for fantasy football. The way this game works is I will name a player, then explain if their draft stock is currently overrated, underrated, or right where it should be. 

RB Saquon Barkley: Overrated

  • Taking him in the 4-7 range might seem appealing to some people, but don’t be fooled. Keep in mind a few things when considering drafting Saquon:
    • they just brought in Jonathan Stewart who will get 7-12 carries a game
    • Odell will be back healthy and getting the ball a ton
    • he will be a rookie and the Giants might not give him a gigantic workload this season, hoping to keep him healthy for years to come
  • He will be RB1 quality for sure, but there is slim to no chance he has a better season than Le’Veon, Gurley, David Johnson, Antonio Brown, Kamara, or Zeke.

RB Derrick Henry: Underrated

  • DeMarco is gone and he is finally the lead back. Yes, they brought Dion Lewis, but he will serve as more of a third down back. Henry averaged 4.2 yards per carry last season and should see his carries increase from 11 a game to around 17 a game.
  • Dion being there does slightly hinder his fantasy value, but it will keep Henry’s legs fresh along with helping him stay healthy. Henry will also see the majority of the carries in the red zone. Last season Henry averaged 6.6 yards per carry in the fourth quarter, so expect Tennessee to turn him loose toward the end of games. Having Dion there will help him continue to dominate late in games.
  • Matthew Berry has him ranked as the 56th best player and the 23rd best running back. If you can take Henry in the fifth or sixth round do not hesitate to pull the trigger. This guy is RB2/flex quality worst case scenario, and RB1 quality, breakout star of season at best. I personally have him valued as a fourth rounder.

RB Leonard Fournette: Overrated

  • I would be willing to bet quite a bit of money Leonard Fournette will not play all 16 games next season. He had one nagging injury after another last season that occasionally kept him off the field.
  • There are also questions about what kind of guy he is in the locker room. One of the games he missed last season was for violating team rules.
  • Something else that makes me weary of Fournette is the fact that he had games with these stat lines last year:
    • 14 carries for 40 yards
    • 17 carries for 33 yards
    • 12 carries for 25 yards
    • 20 carries for 57 yards
    • 18 carries for 48 yards
  • yes teams stacked the box against Jacksonville last season, but I don’t see their passing game being any better than last year. Teams will still probably try to stop the run when playing the Jags. His dud games also came against some average defenses that other running backs didn’t struggle with. Stay away from Leonard Fournette.

WR Allen Robinson: Overrated

  • The first big concern here is health, he missed all of last season after an ACL injury at the start of the year.
  • In 2016 Robinson only averaged 55 yards a game and scored a mere 6 TD’s. Trubisky will be as good as Bortles at best next season. Therefore there is no real reason to expect Robinson’s numbers to significantly increase next season, even if he’s getting a boat load of targets in garbage time.
  • Matthew Berry has him as the 33rd best player overall and the 17th best receiver. That is incredibly way too high for me. I see Robinson as sixth round or later value.

QB Jimmy Garoppolo: Underrated

  • In the 5 games he started last season, Jimmy G averaged over 300 yards a game and went undefeated. Yes, it is a small sample size, but he did it with a mediocre offensive line and one competent receiver (Marquise Goodwin).
  • Expect the Niners to be a pass first offense this season. They have Garcon back, a beefed up offensive line, and a new pass-catching running back in Jerick McKinnon.

RB Todd Gurley: Right where he should be

  • Gurley was without a doubt the fantasy MVP last season. Anybody who drafted him had a successful season due to his multiple weeks of 40+ points.
  • Matthew Berry has him rated as the number 2 overall player behind Le’Veon, which is where I have him as well.
  • If your first round pick is 3-10 and you have the chance to draft Gurley, PULL. THE. TRIGGER.

WR Alshon Jeffrey: Underrated

  • Last season Alshon had an up and down year. He was a WR2 at best, but it was his first season with both Wentz and Foles. One encouraging stat from his from last year though was his targets. He was targeted 120 times and many of those were in the red zone.
  • Jeffery’s numbers will without a doubt increase this year, its just a question of how much.
  • Matthew Berry has him at 39 overall and the 20th receiver. I see Jeffrey more in the 30-35 range overall and around the 15th best receiver. He is WR1 material if all goes well and he has a stellar year. If for some reason though Jeffrey doesn’t have a season too much better than last year, he is still a very solid WR2 or flex option.
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