On Monday’s episode of the Bill Simmons Podcast, Bill Simmons and his Washington Wizards loving friend, Joe House, were discussing the implications of betting the over on every single NBA game of this season. House believed that you would be a very rich man if you bet the over in each game. I was curious, so I ran the numbers.
Over the course of the NBA season, the over has hit 455 times, the under has hit 444 times, and there have been 16 pushes. To calculate the profitability on these bets, I used unit bets of $100 with odds of -110. And what did I find? You may be surprised.
If you would have bet $100 to win $90 on every single NBA game this season, you’d be in the hole $3,450. Ouch. Having wagered occasionally throughout the past 6 months, this makes me absolutely sick to my stomach.
Additionally, only 9 teams in the NBA would have made you ANY money betting the over this season. Those teams are: Brooklyn, New Orleans, Golden State, Toronto, Atlanta, Charlotte, Boston, San Antonio, and at last, the Washington Wizards.
Ironically, if you bet the over on Joe House’s favorite team, the aforementioned Washington Wizards, you’d have made $1,130! How about that? The lowly Wiz are the most profitable team in the NBA.
So there you have it. Myth busted.